Is Melting Glacier a good Idea......... ????

[Faisal_Aslam]

Assalam-o-Alliakum

As you know that Pakistan is facing serious water shortage. And there is even now less drinking water in few area.

So Govt and scientist are thinking to melt the Glaciers in north.

Pakistan has the world LARGEST set of mountains that are more then 8000 meters. Including world second highest mountain K2. So lot of snow up there in large number of mountains...

So if we melt Galaciers in North then we do not need any effort to transport water as all rivers flows from North to south. Mean the exisiting system will take the water from melting Glacier to all parts of country ...

Any comments ???

Faisal Aslam

[TechChap]

Can you tell me how the great scientists are planning to melt the glaciers? Some clarification is needed before anyone can comment on the adverse effects of the same.

[yasmin]

Well I think the easiest to do this would be to allow the sun to do the work. However as we don't know the nature of these galaziers and what kind of ancient bacteria lie within then various methods of purification should be considered.

[itsgottaCome4romTheheart]

any implications for other countries? we know snow melt on the himalayas causes river flooding in bdesh. Me personally, i think we've manipulated the environment too much already, & look at the consequences all of us are having to bear it. so melting glaciers not a good idea.

[Faisal_Aslam]

TechChep
I have no idea right now that how the great Scientist according to you are going to do that. They have not yet announce that how they are going to do that ... When they will then I will tell others too ...

But I hope that they will have some very good way...


I think there can be many ways though like burning woods/trees. Using bombs and explosives or like increasing sun light intensity using big concave mirror etc etc ....

I am sure that they will have some safe, good and cost efficient ideas then humble me...

There are some areas that have many meters of snow layers in them.....

Faisal Aslam

[TechChap]

melting glaciers by artificial means is bound to cause flooding and landslides in the catchment areas. Not a good idea overall. Long term solutions need to be considered for water shortage.

[Faisal_Aslam]

http://www.dawn.com/2001/05/20/op.htm#3


Hazards of melting as an option: Upper Indus glaciers - I

By Kenneth Hewitt

WHEN there is an acute water shortage it may seem ironic, even a crime, that vast quantities of fresh water sit unused, locked up in the great glaciers of the Indus headwaters. Drought and low stream flow can leave millions of farmers unable to plant a crop, or to prevent one from withering. There is a desperate shortage of pasture and feed for animals. Industries must cut production. Exports are threatened. Urbanites suffer constant load shedding. Lawns turn brown, cars go unwashed. Struggles among the provinces for their share of irrigation water become more urgent. And people like myself are asked, once again, about artificial melting of the glaciers. Many may wonder why a system to do this was not developed long ago. After all, it is a bit late when the crisis is upon us.

On the one hand, I argue below why I think artificial melting is not feasible in economic or technical terms. If it were, there are reasons why it could be disastrous for the Northern Areas environment and water supply in the longer term. On the other hand, focusing on how to get more water from the glaciers misreads the problems of Pakistan's dependence on these resources, and possibilities to make better use of them. First, however, it will be helpful to review what the resources consist of, and their importance for water supply.

There are some 22,000 square kilometres of perennial snow and ice in the Upper Indus Basin, most of it concentrated in the Karakoram, Hindu Raj and north-east Hindu Kush Ranges. This comprises the heaviest glacier cover on mainland Eurasia. The area of winter snowfall is an order of magnitude greater. Snow melt is the dominant source for Himalayan streams like the Swat or Siran. Melt waters from the glacier zone provide half or more of the flows of the main Indus, Chitral and Yarkand rivers.

The glaciers of the Northern Areas include many of great size. More than twenty exceed 25km in length. They have some special characteristics that influence their behaviour and role in water supply. These include having the greatest elevation range of any ice on earth, often exceeding 4,500 metres from the terminus to the highest parts of the watershed. The effects of weather events or climate change on them involve different conditions in different elevation zones. The extent of nourishment by avalanches from the steep mountain walls is exceptional, as is the amount of debris carried by and blanketing large parts of the ice. The region is one of four or five in the world with many glaciers that surge.

Surges are large, catastrophic transfers of ice from the upper to the lower areas of a glacier, usually lasting a few months. Surges have been recorded for 18 glaciers, and are suspected to occur in at least 12 others. There is also a history of ice dams and glacier lake outburst floods. They have caused some of the largest floods on the Indus. Thus, melt waters of the Northern Areas involve both benefits and hazards for water development.

The importance of snow and ice for Pakistan has increased with the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty. This is mainly due to the shift towards greater dependency on the main Indus and its western tributaries. Melt waters from high altitude in the Northern Areas make a much larger contribution to these rivers than the eastern Punjab tributaries now controlled by India. To a great extent, the main reservoirs, especially Tarbela and the replacement works, have substituted water from Himalayan snow and ice, for rain-fed stream flow. But let us now return to the question of artificially increasing the former.

Proposals come in two forms: increasing the energy delivered to the snow and ice, or increasing its ability to absorb solar energy. The former range from giant reflectors concentrating the sun's rays, to nuclear plants. None that I have seen is likely to work or, if it will, to be cost-effective at a scale necessary to make a difference except at a very local level. (Some have even suggested melting ice with nuclear explosions, as though making the entire river system radioactive or the effect on security concerns of neighbouring states, are not a problem.)

Systems to increase absorption of heat from the sun work by making the ice or snow darker so they reflect less sunshine. Small-scale experiments have shown that dusting snow or ice with a dark powder will increase melting in sunny weather. I only consider this option.

There are specific, technical problems making it very difficult to apply any of these systems, especially in rugged, high-altitude basins. The logistics of an effort to dust snow and ice, having any appreciable effect on stream flow, are mind boggling. The process would have to involve dozens of glaciers, including the largest ones, and their main areas of bare ice between 3,500 and 4,500 metres above sea level. The only conceivable means of delivery would be airborne carriers dusting hundreds of square kilometres under favourable wind and sun conditions. The means and constraints would be similar to those of aerial crop-dusting techniques, but in much more difficult environments.

However, before considering the technical issues, there are, I believe, insurmountable problems of scale and timing. How much additional water would make a useful difference to the flow of the rivers? When will it make a difference? These two questions are closely intertwined because of the changing seasonal conditions influencing melting.

First, it must be emphasized that artificial melting has little or no relevance to total, annual water availability. During the months of highest flow, much of the snow and ice melt goes to the ocean, because the quantities exceed the reservoir and canal capacities of the Plains. The need relates to low flow augmentation, responding to unseasonable low flows, or increasing yields early or late in the year.

Water supply crises in the Plains, that could be helped by increased stream flow, almost always occur between February and May. Unfortunately, because of temperature constraints, there is no possibility of causing melting of the glaciers in these months. No net yield of water can be obtained by natural or artificial melting in sub-zero temperatures. More than 80 per cent of the ice that is available for melting - the so-called 'ablation zones' of the glaciers - occurs between 3,800 and 4,800 metres above sea level cast. At around 3,800m above sea level daily average temperatures above zero apply for 2-3 months, essentially in July and August. They last only a week or two at 4,800 metres above sea level.

These are times when heavy natural melting occurs and rivers are high. They explain why Tarbela Dam receives all but a tiny fraction of its inflow in just 2-3 months - the first month being almost all snow melt, the last month almost all glacier melt. In fact, some two-thirds of the total glacier area of the Upper Indus Basin lies above 5000 metres above sea level in a permanent ice climate. This is where the glaciers are born. Negligible amounts of melt water come from here. Direct snowfall and avalanched snow accumulates, is changed to glacier ice, then flows down the valley to sustain the ice in the ablation zone.

The picture seems marginally better for snow. The snow pack at lower elevations, say in Swat or Kaghan, will often begin to melt after February. It might be possible to speed this up by blackening the snow. Unfortunately, the lower elevations have the thinnest snow packs, or tree cover. Much or all of the early snow melt infiltrates and goes into soil storage. There are high losses of moisture to evaporation in sunny weather. Under natural conditions very little of the moisture gets into the rivers. Where it does, much of it goes into channel storage and seepage. Very large areas would have to be dusted for, at best, small, short-term results. Only under conditions that would make artificial melting unnecessary and dangerous - an unusually heavy winter snow pack and sudden, rapid natural melting - would yields be significant. Lower altitude snowfall is mostly in or close to areas of permanent settlement, making airborne dusting more problematic.

Suppose, however, that water shortages continue into summer, or a need arises for additional water to top up reservoirs at summer's end? These are times when melting conditions exist in parts of the high snow fields and glacier zone. However, the relationship of temperatures to the distribution of ice by elevation is still unfavourable. In the shoulder seasons, say May-June or September, only the lowest glacier tongues would be available. Not only is their total area small - less than 5% of the ice in the so-called ablation or melting zones.

To be concluded

The writer is a glacier system expert with vast knowledge and experience of Upper Indus glaciers acquired as a consultant to WAPDA some years ago and through his annual visit to the Northern Areas. He is currently associated with the Cold Regions Research Centre of Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada